How to read commodities signals
Commodities - gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, oil and natural gas - are scored on the 1h timeframe. These markets swing in broad structural trends with sharp momentum bursts, and the z-score engine is built for exactly that: it flags when a metal or energy contract breaks out of its own recent range.
Range breakouts in hard assets
Every commodities signal is a direction (BUY / SELL / NEUTRAL) plus a strength (0-100). The direction tells you which way the pair is leaning right now; the strength tells you how hard the raw data agrees. Strength measures conviction - it is not a win rate.
The three engines
Signals are not repackaged from other indicators. They are computed from raw price closes on the 1h timeframe through three independent engines:
Momentum
Multi-horizon rate of change, standardized as a z-score against the pair's own recent history. A pair only fires when it is moving unusually hard for itself - not by a fixed percentage. That keeps low-volatility and high-volatility pairs on even footing.
Trend alignment
EMA slope plus where price sits relative to it. Momentum and trend must agree - a strong push against the prevailing trend is suppressed rather than chased.
Volatility regime
Pseudo-ATR ratio vs the pair's own recent baseline. Flags high(wider stops, more risk) and quiet (tight range) conditions so you know whether the setup is tradeable right now.
How to read a card
Take this example:
- momentum - human label for the z-score trend (accelerating / building / fading / drifting).
- trend - up / down / flat from EMA slope.
- volatility - regime + a warning when risk is elevated.
- atr - average true range as a % of price; your reference for stop distance.
- confluence - how many classic indicators (RSI / MACD / Bollinger) agree, as a fraction.
What makes commodities different
Energy (WTI, BRENT, NG) is driven by supply shocks and can gap violently; precious metals (XAU, XAG, XPT, XPD) trend for weeks on macro flows. A HIGH volatility regime on natural gas is normal, while a BUY on gold after a multi-day uptrend is a continuation, not a reversal. Use the atr% value to size positions - gold's ~1% daily range and natural gas's ~3-5% range need very different stop widths. Confluence with classic indicators (RSI / MACD) is stronger on commodities than on forex because these trends are more persistent.